A critical problem — aside from constitutional, political, and moral considerations — with a president taking the country to war with overwhelming public opposition, without congressional authorization, and even without public debate is that we do not know its purpose. From all appearances, neither Donald Trump nor any adviser knows the purpose of his strikes against Iran. (If one were being totally honest, the “purpose” likely is to soothe the narcissistic rage of a president headed for a massive defeat.)
Susan Glasser took a stab at listing the ever-fluctuating reasons for sending men and women to die, while spending billions of dollars:
[O]utright regime change, assistance to the oppressed peoples of the Islamic Republic, stripping Iran of “the ability to project power outside its borders,” stopping future Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks while exacting revenge for past ones, preemptive action against an imminent Iranian threat to attack U.S. forces, preemptive action to block Iran from building ballistic missiles that could hit the U.S. mainland, and preemptive action to stop the Iranian nuclear program that Trump had, as recently as last week, claimed was “obliterated.” Many of these explanations are based on false premises; some already seem to have been abandoned.
Never have we launched a war for yet-to-be-decided reasons without preparation for civilians in the region. We can already draw four conclusions from Trump’s blunder.
First, there was never an “imminent” threat to America. (Instead, while Trump lied that he had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear weapons program in the prior war, Iran is still digging out from the last illegal war.) Trump did not even try to make the “imminent” argument in his War Powers letter to Congress, so his minions can stop dissembling to lawmakers and voters. The notion that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “made” Trump do it is as preposterous as it is pathetic. Netanyahu has unsuccessfully hounded presidents for decades to go to war, seeking to bomb Iran; only Trump took the bait. If we outsourced our foreign policy to another country, that would be an even greater constitutional calamity.
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Second, if Trump meant to achieve actual regime change — and certainly called on Iranians to rise up — he inexcusably baited civilians to take action without any capability or desire to assist them. No country has ever achieved regime change, as opposed to regime decapitation, through bombing. Furthermore, those civilians will have to face the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, who have sworn to defend the regime, no matter the cost. The IRGC has an estimated 150,000 troops throughout the country; if anything, their grip will tighten as we kill civilian leaders without a plan for leadership. Moreover, we cannot possibly ensure Iran will “never” pursue a nuclear weapon since Iran has the know-how and allies to supply necessary materials.
Third, neither Trump nor the Iranians (if they want a truce) know when and how to stop this. Trump has suggested multiple timeframes, including “far longer” than 4-5 weeks. But the enemy and our bombed allies get a say as well. If regime change is the (unattainable) purpose, this will be the quintessential forever war. If the aim is just to damage the regime, one wonders when enough will be enough.
Fourth, to no one’s surprise (in part because Americans do not know why we are at war) Trump’s war is incredibly unpopular. If meant to divert from Trump’s other unpopular moves — e.g., a pedophile coverup, inflation-boosting tariffs, cuts to healthcare, unleashing a secret police to terrorize Americans — he should have chosen something voters actually wanted. Public opposition is likely to intensify as Americans experience the results of Trump’s self-inflicted economic disaster. “A worldwide sell-off for stocks is slamming onto Wall Street Tuesday, and oil prices are leaping even higher as worries rise that the war with Iran is widening and may do more sustained damage to the global economy than feared,” the Associated Press reported Tuesday.
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Democrats will need to remind voters that any sensible president could have avoided a calamitous war simply by continuing negotiations. Moreover, if Trump had not torn up the Iran nuclear deal, inspectors would have been on the ground to tell us what Iran was doing, thereby eliminating the need for wars based on suspicion of progress toward a bomb. But clearly, Trump wanted this war — the facts, the casualties, the law, and the public be damned.
Trump has committed a grievous constitutional violation. Only Congress has the power to declare war under Article I. If the president drags us into in war in violation of the Constitution and the United Nations Charter (which is the law of the land), Congress has the power of the purse (i.e. pull the plug on funding) and/or the power to impeach and remove. But MAGA Republicans refuse to uphold their oaths and will do none of that. So, what next?
SubscribedDemocrats have the facts, public opinion, and the Constitution on their side. (They also know TACO Trump often reverses himself when pressure mounts so an irate public or Gulf allies’ ire could trigger retreat.) Democrats do, however, need a clear, unified strategy.
That starts with reminding voters (especially reachable Republicans)constantly that Trump ran twice on no more open-ended wars of choice. He has betrayed every voter who believed him. Democrats should encourage voters to express (peacefully) their outrage and tell their elected leaders that acquiescence in an illegal, immoral war is a deal-breaker for any candidate on the ballot.
Democrats will not win sufficient votes to implement the War Powers Act or cut off funding, but they must force every Republican to go on the record. No one should be able to duck responsibility for an unconstitutional, reckless war that voters overwhelmingly reject.
Beyond that, Democrats would be wise to connect this betrayal to Trump’s serial domestic failures (e.g., not bringing down costs). Minority Senate Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) had it right when he declared on the floor on Monday:
Donald Trump ran for office on the promise to wind down America’s endless wars. What he is doing is exactly the opposite. He is picking military fights all over the world and not taking care of business here at home. One year into office Donald Trump has broken his promise to end forever wars again and again and again—from Venezuela to threats against Greenland to now a new war with Iran.
In sum, Democrats have a succinct, overarching message that is more than a list of complaints. The election is about Trump’s stunning betrayal of voters, all enabled by spineless Republicans. If Trump betrayed your trust and did the opposite of what you wanted (e.g., forever wars, rising prices, terrorized cities), then vote for the only party that will stop him.
It’s that simple.
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