Democrats — freaked out by premature polls, despondent over delays in former president Donald Trump’s trials and still suffering from flashbacks of the 2016 election — are prone to forget the considerable advantages their own side has over his MAGA cult following. To say polls show President Biden would lose “if the election were held today,” is silly. The election isn’t today, and its outcome will largely depend on what happens between now and then. The election is no more predetermined eight months before Election Day than a Super Bowl winner is decided before the start of the regular season. Considering how much a single speech, such as the State of the Union, or a criminal conviction in one of Trump’s four criminal indictments might change perceptions, no one should underestimate the array of factors that will affect the direction of the race. As Donald H. Rumsfeld famously said, there are known knowns (e.g., a MAGA movement cocooned from reality), known unknowns (e.g., whether Trump will be convicted) and unknown unknowns (e.g., an international event, a natural disaster necessitating a federal response). Faced with uncertainty, people seek refuge in irrelevant polling. Time is better spent sizing up the comparative advantages of the two sides, which, over time, take on larger significance. We are all too familiar with Trump’s iron lock on his cult following and the media’s obsession with normalizing him. Shamelessness, some would say, is a superpower. But Biden has real advantages (in addition to sanity, a good governing record and experience) that Democrats should not take for granted. Since the State of the Union, several of these lesser-known advantages have become more evident. First, Biden has self-awareness. He knows he is old and can joke about it. He and his team understand just how underestimated he is, making it easy to defy expectations. His opening ad was a tour de force in self-deprecation. A little self-awareness and a sense of humor go a long way, as evidenced by the edgier Biden media operation (e.g. Dark Brandon, the “presidential advice” video). |
Trump, by contrast, fails to grasp when he is babbling, giving ammunition to his opponent or further incriminating himself. (The lack of self-awareness shows throughout the Republican Party and leads to missteps, such as the ridiculed response to the State of the Union.) Trump’s cluelessness might become more damaging to him as time goes on. His temper tantrums in courtrooms and boasts about his tyrannical agenda hurt him outside of his hardcore base. In sum, one campaign is flying blind, utterly dependent on a narcissistic figure degenerating under pressure; the other can adjust, improvise and compensate. Second, Biden has concrete advantages in resources. He landed a mammoth fundraising haul after the State of the Union, and none of his reserves need to be diverted toward astronomical legal bills. He has cohesive and functioning state parties, unlike Trump, and an impressive state-by-state operation to turn out the vote and marshal volunteers, something Trump also lacks so far. Biden hit the airwaves with a $30 million ad buy and has already staffed personnel in key states. Biden’s ability to travel anywhere as frequently as he wants(and hence run a more, not less, vigorous campaign than Trump) and tout popular projects will also bolster him as the election draws near. Biden also benefits from the enormously effective surrogates such as Jill Biden and the more combative, confident Vice President Harris, who connects with key parts of the Democrats’ base. That’s not to mention polished members of the administration and other elected Democrats (from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to California Gov. Gavin Newsom). Some even go on Fox News (!) to reach members of Trump’s audience, giving them news they would never hear. Trump, on the other hand, could not even keep Truth Social from crashing during the State of the Union, which deprived Trump of his rapid response. He is low on money, behind on organization and even now keeps bad-mouthing mail-in voting, a critical turnout mechanism. This week, he fired a slew of experienced staffers from the Republican National Committee, no doubt to be replaced by MAGA loyalists. Expect unquestioned obedience, once again, to replace competence as the chief criteria for Trump’s staff. (He rarely hired “only the best” people.) Third, there is something to be said for optimism and good cheer. Trump paints America as a hellscape; his view of a racial invasion and rampant crime (that is statistically nonexistent) is meant to keep his followers in a state of frenzy and despair. But the exhausting drama and aura of foreboding that hangs over Trump might not wear well. It surely didn’t while he was president and campaigning in 2020. Pundits sometimes portray Biden as offering “normalcy.” While it is not exactly “hope and change,” he does convey unalloyed faith in America and the promise of progress that Americans historically embrace. |
It’s no coincidence that Vanderbilt professor and acclaimed author Jon Meacham, Biden’s historian-on-call, is around to help channel the president’s natural optimism into a sweeping image of American resilience. “An encyclopedic historical recall and deeply studied presidential biographies give Meacham immense value to Biden,” the Nashville Scene reported. “The two openly embrace American exceptionalism and share a disdain for Trump, Biden’s political opponent and Meacham’s Lucifer, whose chief sins are contesting election results and marching on the Capitol.” Meacham and Biden are betting that Americans want to be proud, inspired and reassured by their president. If they are right, Biden will do just fine. Biden’s advantages don’t guarantee he will win any more than polls this far out (and often within the margin of error) ensure Trump will win. But Biden’s true advantages make it more likely he will reach, inspire and persuade more voters than Trump. That, after all, is what campaigns are all about. |
|