Reprinted from The Washington Post
January 2, 2023
by Jennifer Rubin
The media’s obsession with early, irrelevant polling (largely within the margin of error) leads them to conclude that Trump, now the likely nominee after New Hampshire, is the favorite to win the presidency. But if we look past the premature and utterly nonpredictive general election polls to examine Trump the candidate, his weaknesses appear overwhelming. For starters, it is hardly good news for the party out of power when the election already revolves around the challenger’s fitness, rather than the incumbent’s performance. Past presidential challengers such as Mitt Romney, John McCain, John F. Kerry and Al Gore did not have the extra hurdle to prove they were sane, law-abiding and pro-democracy. Trump does, and he reinforces those concerns whenever he opens his mouth. Consider the heavy baggage that comes with Trump. With less than 55 percent of the vote in New Hampshire and Iowa, his results were underwhelming for someone with near universal name recognition. GOP turnout in Iowa was mediocre at best; in New Hampshire, independents turned out in droves but Republicans made up a surprisingly small share of the primary electorate. His weakness among independent voters in New Hampshire should worry Republicans. A small group of committed followers does not mean widespread enthusiasm for the candidate. Moreover, Trump seems more confused, incoherent and feeble than ever. Mistaking former president Barack Obama for President Biden, confusing Nancy Pelosi and Nikki Haley, running on about a made-up questions on a cognitive test (very meta, for him) and getting his world wars mixed up give the impression he’s slipping. Former representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.) posted on X, “His confusion and lack of awareness is a trend. He’s aging very fast. I hope his family is getting him the help he needs.” Ouch. Imagine if Biden committed even one of these goofs — or slurred his words as Trump periodically does. Beyond that, large numbers of Republicans (and independent voters) say they will not vote for him if he is convicted of a crime. There’s a good chance that will happen in either the New York business falsification case or in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot case. Along the way, outbursts, temper tantrums and bullying courtroom antics akin to those he has displayed in his civil cases will be in the news. And he’s likely to repeat some tirades on courthouse steps. No doubt he will consistently reinforce the perception that he is erratic, irrational, vengeful and unstable. He seems incapable of controlling himself. |
And, don’t forget, a jury in E. Jean Carroll’s civil case already found him to be an inveterate liar and sexual attacker. A second E. Jean Carroll verdict against him for defamation is likely coming. And the New York case of fraudulent business valuations might underscore his compulsion to inflate his ego with more lies. “Repeatedly adjudicated liar” is not the moniker you want as a candidate. Considering Trump’s specific promises to pursue dictatorial powers, his repeated praise for tyrants, the cast of misfits he would bring to the White House and his actual record (e.g., lost jobs, hundreds of thousands of avoidable covid-19 deaths), his likely opponent, Biden, has an embarrassment of riches. You can then throw in the GOP’s abysmal elections record over the past few years, its losing streak on abortion, House Republicans’ pitiful legislative record and the shrinking number of White Christian evangelicals (his core base of support). It sure does not seem like favorable political terrain for the probable GOP nominee. Finally, the public is catching on to the economy’s strength. And as the Wall Street Journal reported, there is a good chance things get even better. (“Now Americans are bucking up as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve signals that interest-rate increases are likely behind us. And with the solid labor market putting money in the bank accounts of freely spending consumers, recession fears for 2024 are fading.”) Sure, Trump might win in November. Tens of millions of people have been drawn into a fascist movement and have lost their grip on reality (as Romney has pointed out). But we should not confuse the unbreakable support Trump derives from cultist members with general election viability. Looking at the totality of the evidence, chances appear just as high that the former president will lose — and by a larger margin than he lost in 2020. Democrats benefit from not getting overconfident, but they need to get a grip: Their side has many fewer problems than does the MAGA movement. ****** As an aside, I happened to turn on the TV to CNN and they had up a map of the US. The discussion was sickening - predicting which candidate will take which state in the general election. Much too early for any of this! |
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